Texting and Driving - The Current Numbers Do Not Warrant a Ban

Well, the city is going to move forward tonight on implementing a ban on texting while driving.  I am against this ban as there is no data that has ever been presented that supports the need for a ban.  And I will attempt to illustrate that the current data might support just the opposite.  That texting and driving has little if any affect on the accident rate.

Now, is texting and driving the safest thing you can do.  Of course not.  Any distracted driving should be eliminated as much as possible.  Almost all accidents involve some type of distraction or very high speeds.  Of course impaired driving is a whole other issue and should not be confused with this topic.  I don't think driving and applying makeup is safe, nor is driving with a bunch of kids in the back seat who are causing you to take your eyes off the road.  What about the baby in the car seat who is crying?  Does this take your attention away from driving?  Of course it does.  You must do what you can to limit distractions and learn when and where it is safe to take your eyes off the road for the seconds required to address these issues.  But ban them!  Of course not.

Now to prove my point that at this time there is no data to support the need for a ban on texting.  There has been no increase in accidents in Laredo that would support a ban.

Here is the traffic accident data for the city of Laredo (numbers provided by Laredo PD) including the population data for Laredo (sourced from US Census Bureau.)

Year	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005
Accidents	6458	6362	6571	6611	6439	6576
Population x1000	1755	1814	1874	1933	1993	2022
Avg Accidents P Day	17.7	17.4	18.0	18.1	17.6	18.0

Year	2006	2007	2008	2009
Accidents	6708	7083	6660	6454
Population x1000	2052	2112	2171	2231
Avg Accidents P Day	18.4	19.4	18.2	17.7

As you can see from these numbers that the number of accidents  per day in the year 2000 is the same as the number of accidents per day in 2009 at 17.7.   There was in increase up to 19.4 accidents per day in 2007, but that number has gone down.  I am sure there will be an anomaly in 2011 when the number of accidents for last weeks ice storm are added.   

While we are at this point, I want to note that in no way does this set of data equate to a professional study using accepted statistical analysis.  What would be nice here would be the number of miles driven vs. accident data.  That would be a better number than I am providing.  However, this common sense look at numbers should start you thinking about what needs to be done to validate the need for a ban.

Now you have seen the actual number of traffic accidents in Laredo, now let's look at the frequency of the act of sending a text message.

In the year 2000 there were 105.9 million wireless subscriber and 14.4 million text messages sent.  This data came from the national wireless association web page.  In 2005 there were 207.9 million wireless subscribers and 9.8 billion text messages sent.  In 2009 there were 285.6 million wireless subscribers and 152.6 billion text messages sent. 

Summary, nationwide there were 10,597 more text messages being sent in 2009 than in 2000. 

Now, let's put this besides Laredo accident data.  I do not know how many text messages were sent in Laredo.  But let's assume that Laredo is no different than the rest of the country in the numbers of messages sent per person.  Actually you might make the argument that Laredo probably did more texting than the national average because 50% of our population is under 25 years old, and this demographic has the highest rate of texting. 

Laredo 2000

17.7 accidents per day   Population 175,500    National text messages 14.4 million

Laredo 2005

18.0 accidents per day   Population 202,200   National text messages 9.8billion (681 times more text messages than in 2000, but only a .3 accident per day accident increase in Laredo)

Laredo 2009

17.7 accidents per day   Population 223,100   National text messages 152.6 billion (10,597 times more text messages than in 2000, and the accident rate per day is the same for Laredo)

Common sense should tell you that if texting and driving is so dangerous, and that accidents are imminent if you text and drive, then if texting goes up 10,500 times more over a given time frame that the accident rate should go up if texting and driving is as dangerous as some people try to make it out to be.

Obviously, Laredo's accident rate has NOT increased, even with the dramatic increases in text messages being sent.  Again, this is not anywhere close to a proper study of the issue.  But, common sense says the anecdotal information being put forth needs to be investigated before a total ban is implemented.  I mean why would you ban something that does not severely impact the community.

PS, the "If it saves one life" argument is not valid, and shows a complete disregard for risk/reward analysis.  It is a political statement not founded in fact.